Will melting ice spur a ‘cold rush’ for Arctic resources?

As sea ice floating in the Arctic Ocean continued to melt down toward its annual minimum extent, three panelists at Kane 220 last week discussed the future of energy resources around the region. Considering the warmer atmosphere and less icy ocean, the speakers faced a simple question:

“How should we proceed in the Arctic?” asked the forum’s moderator, Gennady Pshakin, a visiting professor from Obninsk State University for Atomic Energy in Obninsk, Russia. “We could leave it untouched or develop it for our energy needs.”

Straightforward as it may seem, utilizing the Arctic for commercial purposes remains uncertain and politically hazardous.

Sea ice invades the Arctic Ocean for more than half the year, shipping lanes are tenuously navigable — almost always requiring the help of icebreakers — and an international dispute over ownership of underwater resources continues.

Despite this vague outlook, the panelists offered their insights to form a clearer picture of the future of energy in the Arctic.

The accelerated rush for oil and gas in the Arctic was precipitated by two conditions: the end of cheap fossil fuels and the continued decrease in Arctic sea ice.

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, domestic oil production peaked in 1970.

Imports have risen steadily since the mid-1980s, and as the price of a barrel of oil continues to rise, government officials are looking for new sources of energy.

Estimates rank the Arctic’s oil reservoir at 14 percent of global reserves. Following last year’s record minimum in Arctic sea ice extent, calls for the development of energy resources have become louder.

Arctic sea ice has generally decreased throughout the modern record, which was begun in the late 1970s. However, melting pace took a dramatic turn last year, exceeding the reduction rate expected from statistics and surprising scientists.

“The trends are dramatic and seem to be accelerating,” said Ignatius Rigor, a research scientist in the Polar Science Center at the UW’s Applied Physics Laboratory.

With sea ice at very low concentrations and projected to continue decreasing, the viability of shipping goods and resources across the Arctic Ocean has risen to the fore.

“People say Arctic shipping is coming,” said Ben Ellis, a panelist and the managing director of the Institute of the North. “Forget it — Arctic shipping is here.”

Ellis explained that ice-strengthened ships are already charting routes through the Northwest Passage along the Northeast Passage, skirting the Siberian coastline.

Yet Ellis questioned the economic practicality of increased traffic through the Northern ocean and surmised that little would change in a reduced ice state.

“Why would you take a ship off a demonstrably profitable route and try for an uncertain route through the Arctic?” Ellis said. “You couldn’t be sure that the route will be open without the help of expensive icebreakers, nor that its port would be prepared for an early arrival.”

At the conclusion of last week’s forum, more questions than answers remained. What is clear, however, is that the Arctic will remain at the forefront of energy development for the foreseeable future.

“I don’t know of anyone who isn’t looking at the Arctic,” Ellis said.

The forum, “The Cold Rush: Arctic Energy,” was convened by the UW Program on the Environment, the Jackson School of International Studies and the Consulate General of Canada, Seattle.